X-Factors and Predicted Outcomes for Each Bubble Team

We will find out if four months off will drastically change previous expectations.

A hummingbird drinks sugar water from the feeder. Lavender flowers bloom. Cartoon, anthropomorphized animals break out into song. The NBA is back, what a pastoral scene it is.

Besides a few acquisitions and a handful of impactful injuries, most teams in the bubble are what they were prior to the league’s suspension. Naturally, it is easy to commentate on the NBA as if it is business as usual.

That may be true, but there are imaginable scenarios that could upset the established order of the league. For the purposes of this exercise, an X-Factor is not necessarily a team’s best player. Rather, it is a player that exceeds expectations so as to materially improve his team’s chances of winning.

Giannis averaging 37 points a game instead of 30 is monstrous, but it may not have the same impact as sustained high performance from …

Eastern Conference:

Milwaukee Bucks (53-12)

X-Factor: Eric Bledsoe

The Bucks and Lakers both have "team of destiny" feels this year. But Bledsoe has famously folded in his previous playoff appearances while the expectations for Milwaukee have only gone up. For the Bucks to have a title shot, Bledsoe needs to be at least average on offense and shine defensively against the plethora of talented guards he could face in the Eastern Conference Finals (ECF) or NBA Finals.

Expected Outcome: Lose in NBA Finals

Toronto Raptors (46-18)

X-Factor: Marc Gasol

Gasol played stalwart defense against big men like Joel Embiid in last year’s playoffs. As another year has passed, the former DPOY is a year older with a similar challenge. Defending guys like Embiid will be that much more difficult. Guys like Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Kyle Lowry can anchor the defense on anyone 1-4. It is essential for Toronto that Gasol can play championship-level defense and effectively space the floor as well as he has in the past.

Expected Outcome: Lose in Semi-Finals

Boston Celtics (43-21)

X-Factor: Kemba Walker

Walker is practicing only every other day due to a lingering knee issue that caused 10 missed games over the Celtics’ last 24. This team runs through Walker, and I don’t think Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown can carry this team to the Finals without their All-Star floor general.

Expected Outcome: Lose in Semi-Finals

Miami Heat (41-24)

X-Factor: Kendrick Nunn

I have the utmost confidence that Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo will hold their own in the playoffs. But Nunn, as a rookie, will be under the spotlight against the most fierce competition of his young career. He is a starter who provides a much more broad arsenal than fellow youngsters Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro. If Nunn can be a scoring threat and consistent elsewhere, there is a reason to believe Miami can make it to the Finals.

Expected Outcome: Lose in ECF

Indiana Pacers (39-26)

X-Factor: Myles Turner

The Turner-Domantas Sabonis experiment worked a lot better than anticipated this season. But now, Sabonis has left the bubble with plantar fasciitis. That severely hamstrings the Pacers’ Finals chances, and now makes the bubble seem like more of an exhibition. With that said, Turner has a solid opportunity to prove his value spacing the floor and anchoring the frontcourt with Sabonis out and Victor Oladipo in.

Expected Outcome: Lose in First Round

Philadelphia 76ers (39-26)

X-Factor: Ben Simmons

The Sixers were a few bounces from a potential trip to the ECF last year. Simmons and Philly might just be the hungriest team in the league, but that won’t happen without Simmons being the better point guard each night. It’s possible that the absence of a crowd can clear his psyche and he’ll be a 3-point specialist. That might be asking too much, but outside shooting has been the team’s achilles’ heel all year, and Simmons needs to facilitate scoring at the highest level.

Expected Outcome: Lose in First Round

Brooklyn Nets (30-34)

X-Factor: Jamal Crawford

Without Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, Spencer Dinwiddie, Wilson Chandler, Taurean Prince, and DeAndre Jordan, this team — what’s left of it — is here for the fun of it. Crawford is the x-factor purely to showcase if he can still play at an NBA level.

Expected Outcome: Lose in First Round

Orlando Magic (30-35)

X-Factor: Aaron Gordon

Orlando is another team that is here just to get some reps in. With Jonathan Isaac’s status in question, Gordon has a chance for an even more expanded role. It seems like we have been waiting since he came into the league for him to breakthrough. I’m not holding my breath for it to happen, but this seems as good of an opportunity as ever to do it.

Expected Outcome: Lose in First Round

Washington Wizards (24-40)

X-Factor: Rui Hachimura

This team had very little to begin with, and now they are without Bradley Beal and Davis Bertans. I don’t think Washington will be within the 4-game threshold to force a play-in series. With a good chunk of floor time opening up, it’ll be good to see how Hachimura takes on an added workload as one of the best scorers left in that lineup.

Expected Outcome: Miss the Playoffs

Western Conference:

Los Angeles Lakers (49-14)

X-Factor: Alex Caruso

Of course, this team goes where LeBron James and Anthony Davis go, but the Lakers will still be without key pieces in Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley. It’s possible that new additions Dion Waiters and JR Smith can assume some of that responsibility. But Caruso has proven himself to be savvy on the court in limited time and could jumpstart offense for the second unit.

Expected Outcome: NBA Champions

Los Angeles Clippers (44-20)

X-Factor: Montrezl Harrell

Harrell doesn’t have much playoff experience, let alone against tough big men having only faced a healthy Golden State last year. He has demonstrated, despite his smaller frame, that he can battle with any frontcourt, but I am not sure it is sustainable through a run to the Finals. Ivica Zubac will have to be a steadfast defender when Harrell is off. The rest of the team has ... fewer concerns.

Expected Outcome: Lose in Western Conference Finals

Denver Nuggets (43-22)

X-Factor: Jamal Murray

The Denver guard is a bucket, but his performances can be as volatile as any in the league. And when Murray is having an off night, he can look truly pedestrian. For the Nuggets to not be an afterthought, Murray has to be a smart, consistent scoring threat and take pressure off Nikola Jokic, Gary Harris, Will Barton, and non-scorers like Torrey Craig.

Expected Outcome: Lose in Semi-Finals

Utah Jazz (41-23)

X-Factor: Donovan Mitchell

Without Bojan Bogdanovic, I think Utah’s slim Finals chances have dwindled to almost zero. We know Mitchell can kick it into overdrive, and he has a good supporting cast around him, but it’s just not at the level of the teams ahead of them. If Mitchell can play like an All-Star, they can maybe hang without getting swept.

Expected Outcome: Lose in First Round

Oklahoma City Thunder (40-24)

X-Factor: Chris Paul

I was tempted to put Steven Adams here given the Thunder’s limited big man depth, but this is bigger than lineups. Paul is ringless, and this may be one of his last chances to get one. And it’s a small chance, too. I don’t see Oklahoma City as more of a disruption, but with Paul playing at an elite level, they could shock people.

Expected Outcome: Lose in Semi-Finals

Houston Rockets (40-24)

X-Factor: PJ Tucker

Tucker has the physicality to make Houston’s small-ball experiment work. But this is a LOT of battering in a short amount of time. The Rockets don’t have much of a contingency plan if Tucker can’t keep up. James Harden will be James Harden, and Russell Westbrook will hopefully be full strength following a COVID diagnosis. Tucker could be in for a bad time.

Expected Outcome: Lose in First Round

Dallas Mavericks (40-27)

X-Factor: Luka Doncic

When Doncic is playing at his absolute best, which has been nearly all the time this season, then Dallas can compete with anyone. In this truncated season, anything could happen. The Mavericks winning the title is a far-fetched scenario, but I think Playoff Luka could pull it off somehow. But probably not.

Expected Outcome: Lose in First Round

Memphis Grizzlies (32-33)

X-Factor(s): Brandon Clarke and Dillon Brooks

Justise Winslow wasn’t the most important cog for Memphis, but his defensive and ball-handling prowess will make his absence felt. Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson are going to produce and be one of the most exciting duos in the bubble. If Clarke and Brooks can step up and be more valuable scorers, they could stave off the threats from Portland and New Orleans.

Expected Outcome: Lose play-in series as No. 8 seed

Portland Trailblazers (29-37)

X-Factor: Jusuf Nurkic

Nurkic’s return is important for a multitude of reasons. Pairing him with Hassan Whiteside gives Portland a heavy-footed wall down low, or playing with the second unit can give them much-needed depth. But Nurkic’s injury was bad, and it is nerve-wracking for him to play at full speed with a playoff spot in the line, especially when the Trailblazers are likely a first-round knockout.

Expected Outcome: Miss the Playoffs

New Orleans Pelicans (28-36)

X-Factor: Zion Williamson

Who else could it be? The Pelicans were only 10-9 since Zion joined the starting lineup, but that’s a good enough pace to put them in playoff contention. For pure entertainment, for sights toward the future, and for playoff implications, eyeballs will once again be fixated on Zion.

Expected Outcome: Win play-in series as No. 9 seed, Lose in First Round

Sacramento Kings (28-36)

X-Factor: Buddy Hield

The Kings don’t really have much business being here. The absence of Marvin Bagley III is disappointing and reinforces that notion. If anything, this will be a good opportunity for Hield to get back to being a plus-40 percent 3-point shooter after signing a lucrative deal last offseason.

Expected Outcome: Miss the Playoffs

San Antonio Spurs (27-36)

X-Factor: Dejounte Murray

The Spurs don’t have much to play for, especially without LaMarcus Aldridge and Trey Lyles. Thus, Murray’s position as the x-factor is purely forward-looking. He got off to a slow start this year, but really looked to be finding some consistency before the NBA’s suspension. The same can be said for the rest of the Spurs’ future pieces such as Derrick White or Lonnie Walker IV.

Expected Outcome: Miss the Playoffs

Phoenix Suns (26-39)

X-Factor: Devin Booker

Do I really have to say anything here? At least Booker can kinda sorta know what it’s like to play in a meaningful game. He will put up buckets regardless.

Expected Outcome: Miss the Playoffs