Halfway Through: What Did I Get Wrong?

Past the halfway point of the season, things have gone far different than I imagined.

As we pass the halfway point of the 2021-22 NBA season it would be easier to list the pre-season predictions of mine that weren’t wrong.

Misery loves company, though, and my prognostications aligned closely with the mainstream. A number of players and teams had other ideas and have shattered expectations believed to be NBA orthodoxy.

But not all has changed. The MVP race is hotly contested between Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, Nikola Jokic, Steph Curry, and Joel Embiid. Kyrie Irving is causing drama. The Warriors are back in championship contention. The Nets are a surefire contender, if they stay healthy. The Bucks and Suns could be en route to another collision course. The Kings will, of course, miss the playoffs.

Outside of the league’s elites, the only consistency is inconsistency. Instead of reciting every instance where I was off the mark, I want to highlight only my most embarrassingly inaccurate projections.

It is this collection of takes that will ask the question: What idiot could possibly have thought this would happen?

The Detroit Pistons will finish 13th in the East with 28 wins …

I genuinely work hard to take objective viewpoints when dissecting the happenings of the NBA. But not enough hard work could have stopped this train wreck of a thought. They currently sit with the league’s second-worst record at 10-33. To believe Detroit would have a higher win percentage than last year required a belief that 1) Cade Cunningham could become an All-Star immediately, 2) the absence of Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin, Wayne Ellington, and Mason Plumlee were net positives, and 3) last year’s rookies would take leaps. That’s textbook wishful thinking.

… ahead of the 14th-place Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland sits 1.5 games out of the No. 1 seed and 15.5 games clear of the 14th seed currently occupied by … the Pistons. Evan Mobley, Lauri Markkanen, and likely All-Star Jarrett Allen constitute a massive frontcourt boasting a top-3 defensive rating. Darius Garland is a fringe All-Star too, quickly becoming one of the league’s shiniest new toys. This team is fun, which is a tall order for a team that plays in Ohio.

Memphis is exactly where it was least season

Speaking of shiny toys, Ja Morant has been a fidget spinner in a league of pet rocks. His acrobatic rim-protection and high-flying dunks have made him the league’s most popular player right now. But that only tells a part of the story. The Grizzlies are having fun as a team. They record the most blocks and steals per game and the 7th-best offensive rating. If you had this team pegged at No. 3 in the West, you’re a liar.

The Bulls are a play-in team

I mean, come on. Who here foresaw this team in the East’s driver’s seat halfway through? DeMar DeRozan is having a career-best year at age 32 after his contract was laughed at in the offseason. Alex Caruso is looking like a steal, too. Billy Donovan had this team clicking from the get-go with the potential to make some noise in the playoffs. A Patrick Williams-Jerami Grant swap is apparently off the table, but should it be?

The Hornets’ season hinges on Gordon Hayward

Hayward is having a markedly worse year and the Hornets are markedly better, in the thick of the play-in tier. The emergence of Miles Bridges as a 20-7-4 guy can be thanked for that. I had the audacity to call this team a bottom-10 offense with Hayward. Welp, they sit third in offensive rating. Oops.

Portland can still make some noise

I will let myself off the hook a little bit here, as Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum have missed significant chunks of the season with no imminent return dates. The Blazers are positioned firmly in 10th in the West at 18-25. While leaps from Anfernee Simons and Nassir Little are a welcome consolation prize, their record also reflects a reckoning on how this team can compete in the future. As Aaron Paul portraying Jesse Pinkman would say, “(they) can’t keep getting away with this!”

Oklahoma City is the worst team since the process Sixers

The Thunder, armed with 6,129 draft picks over the next eight seasons, have made no secret about their intentions to tank. It happened last season, and they were only rewarded with Josh Giddey at the No. 6 selection. But boy does this team fight. A team of young misfits can jell if they want it bad enough. Coach Mark Daigneault not only has this team playing better than historically bad, they are just regular bad at 14-29

Robert Williams is an X-factor for the No. 4 Celtics

Williams is averaging 10 points and nine boards. He’s playing less than 30 minutes a game as the starting center, yikes. But the headlines for the under-achieving Celtics are about the sustainability of a Jayson Tatum-Jaylen Brown All-Star duo. They are currently battling the Knicks just to stay in the play-in hunt.

Michael Porter Jr. could be a 25+ point per game player

Porter Jr. is out for the year following a back injury. He played nine games, averaging 9.9 points per contest. Sigh.

Miami’s depth is too shallow

The Heat are literally the poster child for great depth. They will look under your couch cushions and find hundred-dollar bills. How could I have been so obtuse not to learn this lesson? Max Strus has essentially stolen Duncan Robinson’s job. Omer Yurtseven, in place of an injured Bam Adebayo, was racking up double-doubles with rebounds in the high teens. Caleb Martin is shooting 37% from three. Tyler Herro is the 6th Man of the Year frontrunner. How many times do we (Miami) have to teach you (me) this lesson old man (me again)?

The Lakers are No. 2 in the West

This team traded Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Montrezl Harell, Kyle Kuzma, and a 1st-round pick for Russell Westbrook. Hahahahahahahahaha. Good one.