My Favorite Pre-Season NBA Futures

As everyone knows, I am the sharpest of sharps.

Online sports betting is coming to Michigan in a matter of weeks. The 2020-21 NBA season starts in a matter of days. In a pandemic-riddled season that could force absences, stymie chemistry-building, and alter player performance in fan-less crowds, odds are as volatile as ever. In other words, today’s odds could be junk at any moment in the future.

But if you’re a Michigander like me and you find yourself in Illinois or Las Vegas in the next few days, NBA futures will be stable. The odds currently sit where they are for a reason. The oddsmakers use voodoo magic and precise algorithms to set lines, but they also serve as important narrative generators for the season. For example, the Rockets are positioned at over/under 35.5 wins. Will they continue to be a contender or is their drop off beginning? Giannis Antetokounmpo’s MVP odds are behind Luka Doncic’s as a consequence of expected voter fatigue.

To put my money where my mouth is would be to write a horribly boring article. The Lakers are championship favorites because they should be — I think they are 2018 Warriors-level favorites. I won’t say the gambling curse words: “it’s a su*e th**g”. As I scour the odds, though, there is value to be found. Below, I am going to outline my sensible pick, my value plays, and bold predictions for the major NBA futures.

Remember, I am not a sharp despite what my brain tells me. Unless, maybe I am?

Championship Winner

Sensible Pick: Lakers +275

Los Angeles blew through the playoffs barely breaking a sweat. And then they got even better. Marc Gasol doesn’t have the athleticism of Dwight Howard or JaVale McGee, but his basketball IQ is off the charts. Montrezl Harrell and Dennis Schroder are skillful players that just finished 1-2 in Sixth Man of the Year voting. I imagine some bumps in the road to start the year given a brief offseason and integrating the new additions, but the Lakers are easy favorites to repeat.

Value Pick(s): Celtics +1400

This may be a contentious pick considering Kemba Walker is missing time and Tristan Thompson is already battling injury. But this team could/should have won the Eastern Conference last season. Hayward is gone, which may be a positive with how many cooks were in the kitchen. Besides the Bucks, the potential of the Nets’ is the only other obstacle. The path for Western teams is so much more difficult that it is harder to find value.

Bold Pick: Trailblazers +4000

Dame Lillard’s team made the Western Conference Finals just two seasons ago and is much, much better than it was then. The front court is completely revamped: Enes Kanter is back home, Jusuf Nurkic is healthy, Hassan Whiteside is gone, and I love the Harry Giles signing. A flyer on Derrick Jones Jr.’s athletic potential could pay off. Robert Covington could overhaul their defensive intensity. And the young guys — Zach Collins, Anfernee Simons, and Nassir Little — have another year under their belts to demonstrate improvement.

MVP Winner

Sensible Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo +500

What argument is there against Giannis besides voter exhaustion? It’s a legitimate concern, but that will still require voters to ignore a player putting up MVP-caliber numbers on a team that will almost certainly be a 1-or 2-seed. Don’t overthink it.

Value Pick(s): Damian Lillard +1200, Jayson Tatum +2200

Like I wrote above, this is the best Blazers team that Lillard has played on. He could play freer than he ever has in his career, and he shot from 100 feet from the rim anyway. Lillard hasn’t sniffed MVP consideration in years past, but why not now?

With Hayward out of the picture, Tatum also sees a massive boost to his MVP candidacy. He has an even tighter control of the reins, and that doesn’t include Kemba Walker’s absence for the first few weeks of the season. For the Celtics to be title contenders, it’s a prerequisite for Tatum to be in the conversation.

Bold Pick: Jamal Murray +8000

With Nikola Jokic by his side, Murray might automatically have no chance. He is realistically the second best player on his own team. But if Murray can fix his inconsistency woes and play with bubble playoff intensity, Murray could surprise a lot of people.

Coach of the Year

Sensible Pick: Erik Spoelstra +1200

The Heat were hardly shoo-ins to make the Finals last year and they did it. But was anyone really surprised? Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are stars, but Miami is still branded based off of its culture. If they can put together a full season of what they showed in the bubble — a tall order considering their short offseason — then Spoelstra will be lionized as one of the greats once again.

Value Pick(s): Quin Snyder +2500, Nick Nurse +3300

The Jazz almost picked off the Nuggets in the playoffs without Bojan Bogdanovic. Now, he’s healthy on a relatively stable roster from last year. As of writing this post, Rudy Gobert still hasn’t signed an extension, a factor which could certainly determine what kind of performance he showcases this season. Oh yeah, and Donovan Mitchell is still just 24 years old and getting better.

Nurse won after the Raptors’ strong regular season in spite of Kawhi Leonard’s departure. Toronto got even worse again with Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka bolting for Los Angeles. But the Raptors are a team that just finds a way to get it done, positioning Nurse for good value at +3300 to win COY.

Bold Pick: Taylor Jenkins +3300

The Grizzlies catapulted from a No. 2 draft pick to nearly making the playoffs last year if not for some back-breaking injuries in the bubble. This team is young and the Western Conference got even stronger, but another year to mature could make a drastic difference for this team.

Defensive Player of the Year

Sensible Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo +300

This pick is simultaneously a hedge on Giannis’ MVP vote and doubling down depending on what narrative you believe. If you think it’s impossible for Giannis to win MVP a third straight year, then voters will find a way to compensate in another way. If you think he is eligible for MVP, then a DPOY effort will be the reason why.

Value Pick(s): Joel Embiid +950

The Sixers are a team that you just can’t quit, no matter how often they fall short of expectations. Last year’s clutter was cleaned up and situated to fit in the modern NBA framework. To that end, Embiid will be anchoring a defense that will look to force stops and then slow it down offensively and wear opponents down. It’s a formula that is much better suited to Embiid’s skillset and for Philadelphia to rack up wins.

Bold Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr +7500

On the stat sheet, JJJ is already among the league’s best defensively — he is going to accumulate a ton of blocks and steals. But this is a pivotal year for his maturity. Can he be trusted to pick up a switch on the perimeter, or not lose his footing down low to balletic big men? The tools are there for him to emerge as a serious DPOY contender, it’s just about putting it all together.

Rookie of the Year

Sensible Pick: James Wiseman +600

In what was considered a weak draft class, no rookie possesses a greater combination of talent and opportunity this season than Wiseman. Golden State is severely lacking in height and disruption down low, which is exactly what Wiseman was drafted for. He is deft in the paint and could grow as a spot-up shooter sooner than expected. A Steph Curry-led offense could lead to plenty of those chances.

Value Pick(s): Killian Hayes +800, Isaac Okoro +2000

Hayes is another example of the marriage of talent and opportunity, but he is still raw. He has the offensive game to thrive, but his defense in the preseason has left a lot to be desired. The leash will be long for him, but in a close game situation it’ll be a two-guard situation or Derrick Rose outrightly taking over. That’s if there are close games to begin with.

Okoro has been impressive in the preseason. We knew when he was drafted that he is a defensive stalwart, but he has shown the ability to do a bit of everything offensively as well. He reminds me of an Andre Iguodala type as a player that will be reliable when you need him.

Bold Pick: Aleksej Pokusevski +5000

The Thunder are the only team that can be unequivocally eliminated from playoff contention in the West. Their roster will always be in flux and will present a lot of opportunities for developmental projects. Poku fits that bill to a T. He has shown offensive prowess and is a disruptor on defense. But he is also a twig that can get bullied down low and is reckless offensively. He might be the reason I am most excited to watch the Thunder this year.

Most Improved Player of the Year

Please don’t bet this.

Sixth Man of the Year

Sensible Pick: Montrezl Harrell +1100

He just won it for the Clippers and will now be on a Lakers team catching passes from LeBron James and Dennis Schroeder. I see no reason for him not to repeat and recover from his poor playoff performance.

Value Pick(s): Jordan Clarkson +950, Tyler Herro +1600

The Jazz’s success may hinge on the ability of their bench to sustain or extend leads. That starts with Clarkson. He was traded to Utah mid-season after averaging 16 a game, and will presumably be much more comfortable in their system.

Herro is a boom-or-bust pick. As the playoffs showed, he could drop 30 one night and completely vanish the next. But for the Heat to remain title contenders, Herro will need to be a consistent contributor, especially with an aging Goran Dragic and the loss of Jae Crowder.

Bold Pick: Chris Boucher +3600

Aron Baynes and Alex Len are not Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol. Boucher has spent more time in Toronto’s system than the first two, and could be a key cog to the Raptors’ defensive effort.

Regular Season Win Totals

Value Pick(s): Suns over 38.5, Hornets over 25.5, Pistons under 23.5

To bet against that Phoenix win total is to believe the 8-0 bubble run is a fluke. I don’t believe that and now they have Chris Paul, Jae Crowder, Langston Galloway, and No. 10 pick Jalen Smith.

Charlotte is a hodgepodge of inexperienced players plus Gordon Hayward. But they have played cohesively in the preseason and have been a joy to watch. An abbreviated season (by 10 games, but the point remains) could have a way of helping them if they figure out how to mesh quicker than others. James Borrego is a solid coach that hasn’t had much to work with.

The Pistons’ roster is intentionally organized to be a dumpster fire despite Troy Weaver’s claims that they want to win. Everyone wants to win, but Detroit will not. They have an incentive to inflate the trade values of Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin to deal them by the deadline. In the preseason, they have looked wholly dysfunctional on offense without anyone reliable to make up for these deficiencies.