What We Have Learned Through the First Set of Playoff Games

For fans and journalists alike, there is never a bad time for extrapolation.

Just like that, the NBA seeding games are over and the playoffs are underway.

As I often like to say, time flies whether you’re having fun or not.

The bubble games offered a look under the hood of which teams had built or stunted momentum after four months. We saw it all — buzzer-beaters, blowouts, unfortunate injuries, emerging stars.

But now, time to acclimate back into playing shape and experimentation with lineups must bear consequences in meaningful playoff games. And several teams still face notable player absences and question marks.

Through only one game of the first round of the playoffs, we have been clued in on how all eight series could go. The relationship between basketball and momentum is fickle, though, and everything from game one could be moot.

It’s time to dive into an uncomfortable topic — premature extrapolation.

Eastern Conference

No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks vs. No. 8 Orlando Magic

Game 1 Result: Magic 122, Bucks 110

What We Learned: The Bucks are not Finals shoo-ins. However, the Magic pulled off a miraculous game one win over the eventual champion Toronto Raptors last season and lost in five games. I foresee the same thing happening, but it shared a blueprint on beating the Bucks. Harkening back to Stan Van Gundy’s Pistons coaching days, Orlando built a wall to anchor the paint and make Milwaukee rely on outside shooting. Khris Middleton wasn’t active on offense, and Giannis Antetokounmpo led the team in 3-point attempts. That leaves the Bucks offense in a much more volatile position. All the while, Brook Lopez’s defense on Nikola Vucevic, who posted 35 points and 14 boards, was far worse than what is expected of Lopez.

Prediction: Bucks in 5

No. 2 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 7 Brooklyn Nets

Game 1 Result: Raptors 134, Nets 110

What We Learned: Fred VanVleet is going to get PAID this offseason. This series was wrapped up before it even started, so there isn’t much to analyze. But VanVleet has been playing for a year straight with dad strength and no signs of slowing down. Toronto should prioritize a way to lock him down for the future.

I don’t think they could win the series, but if the Raptors only played their bench I bet they would give the current Brooklyn roster a run for its money. With Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, Spencer Dinwiddie, and DeAndre Jordan? Now we’re talking.

Prediction: Raptors in 4

No. 3 Boston Celtics vs. No. 6 Philadelphia 76ers

Game 1 Result: Celtics 109, 76ers 101

What We Learned: Injuries may derail both of these team’s seasons. To use a reprehensible term, there is a je ne sais quoi about the 76ers that, despite their lackluster regular season, they still had a playoff roster. With Ben Simmons out the remainder of the season, though, this team simply misses elite facilitation on offense and an All-NBA defender to make them competitive. Shake Milton can’t replicate that in his first playoff experience, and we don’t need more Al Horford than is absolutely necessary.

With that said, Philadelphia was competitive with the Celtics in game one. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are the best wings in this series and have legitimate playoff experience under their belts. But Joel Embiid, who was not as active as the Sixers need him to be, will still dominate Daniel Theis and Enes Kanter. Gordon Hayward was a secondary scorer who could tip the balance in Boston’s favor, but his month-plus absence to injury is untimely.

Prediction: Celtics in 6

No. 4 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 5 Miami Heat

Game 1 Result: Heat 113, Pacers 101

What We Learned: Miami is a sneaky title pick. That’s tough to say when Milwaukee, Toronto, and Miami seem like the only viable East options, but it’s true. When Jimmy Butler said he didn’t need friends in the bubble, it was obvious at that point that the Heat could go far. In game one, Butler and Bam Adebayo put up All-Star numbers and clinched a comfortable win despite 3-for-13 3-point shooting from Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro. This team is scary and hasn’t had too much adjustment yet with Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala in the lineup.

The Pacers appear once again to be stuck in good basketball purgatory (as opposed to bad basketball purgatory occupied by the Charlotte Hornets). Victor Oladipo left with an eye injury and that certainly influenced the outcome of the game. But the absence of scoring, rebounding, and mistake-free play from Domantas Sabonis is too much to overcome. The Heat have firepower in nearly every facet of the game.

Prediction: Heat in 5

Western Conference

No. 1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 8 Portland Trailblazers

Game 1 Result: Trailblazers 100, Lakers 93

What We Learned: Outside shooting is the difference-maker. The Lakers shot just 5-for-32 from beyond the arc and 20-for-31 at the line. LeBron James and Anthony Davis will score in the paint, but this team can’t make the Finals without more consistent shooting. Davis was 0-for-5 from three, Danny Green was 2-for-8, Kyle Kuzma was 1-for-5. Without those guys stepping up, reaching their goals is significantly more difficult.

The Trailblazers have been the most exciting team in the bubble, and game one was no different. They were lights out from three in the fourth quarter, including a logo shot from Portland, Maine from Damian Lillard. But they still don’t have the wings to defend Los Angeles. It may just have been an off night. It’s still a LeBron James-Anthony Davis team.

Prediction: Lakers in 6

No. 2 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 7 Dallas Mavericks

Game 1 Result: Clippers 118, Mavericks 110

What We Learned: The Clippers can get lazy. The most frustrating thing about watching Los Angeles is that it seems like they can flip the switch when they need to, and sometimes they just don’t. The Mavericks were down 15 in the first quarter, and proceeded on a 48-18 and kept the game competitive until Kristaps Porzingis’ ejection. Had Porzingis stayed in the game, who knows if Dallas could have held on. There isn’t a true third option behind Porzingis and Luka Doncic.

I don’t see a world where the Mavericks win four of the next six games. The Clippers got Montrezl Harrell back and they finally have a full, healthy lineup. Sure, they may be adjusting and experience hiccups along the way, possibly dropping a game to Dallas, but they can close out the series quickly if they so choose.

Prediction: Clippers in 5

No. 3. Denver Nuggets vs. No. 6 Utah Jazz

Game 1 Result: Nuggets 135, Jazz 125 (OT)

What We Learned: Depth is everything for either team to advance. I mean, Utah lost and Donovan Mitchell had 57 points. It’s fair to say that the Jazz were in lockstep with Denver despite missing Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic, but 57 is 57. Rudy Gobert has to be doing more than 17 and 7, and one way or another Utah needs to find more scoring and perimeter defense from Royce O’Neale and Joe Ingles.

Denver is still without Gary Harris and Will Barton, but their bench stepped up. Assuming Harris and Barton are reinserted to the starting lineup when healthy, it’s awfully scary that the Nuggets can plug in Michael Porter Jr., Torrey Craig, Jerami Grant, Monte Morris, Mason Plumlee, and so on. Regardless, when the Nikola Jokic-Jamal Murray two-man game is clicking like it was in overtime, Denver can make some noise whether the bench is productive or not.

Prediction: Nuggets in 6

No. 4 Houston Rockets vs. No. 5 Oklahoma City Thunder

Game 1 Result: Rockets 123, Thunder 108

What We Learned: Houston is sticking to the plan. The Rockets look as well-coached as any team in the playoffs. On offense, their ball movement created plenty of open looks, and James Harden did James Harden things with six threes and the ability to draw defenders in the paint on drives and kickouts.

Their defensive rotations have to be stellar playing small-ball, and they did just that against Oklahoma City. It was by no means perfect, and that’s simply a byproduct of the style of basketball they play. The Thunder don’t have the wings to match up with Houston and it’s too much to ask Steven Adams to play defense outside of his range.

Prediction: Rockets in 5