What to Make of the Magic

With playoff expectations, the Magic have both disappointed and surprised in 2019.

At 42-40 in the standings, the Orlando Magic were nobody's definition of an NBA darling last year. They did, however, look like a motley crew of characters that could only get better. Nikola Vucevic put up nightly 20-10 games, good enough for an All-Star nod in the star-deficient Eastern conference. Orlando ended a 6-year playoff drought.

Unlikely heroics from DJ Augustin even gave the Magic a 1-0 playoff series lead over the eventual NBA-champion Toronto Raptors.

Coming into this year, the Magic were a scrappy, cohesive team that added Al-Farouq Aminu and a healthy Markelle Fultz.

Now, the Magic have started the season a wholly unremarkable 6-7 having won four of their last five, which means there is no reason for scorched-earth mandates, but still a cause for concern that the problems of old can easily resurface. The stakes are high, too, as Orlando just invested four years in Vucevic and Terrence Ross. The promise of Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac has shown its bright spots, but the outcome is fleetingly observable.

Yes, they just had a great 125-point effort in a win over the Wizards, the second-worst defensive team in the NBA. Before that, they beat the Spurs, Grizzlies, and a reeling Sixers squad. I don't put much stock in those wins despite high-level play. It's what they should do. Why is this team so volatile? As I dove in, I learned it's an issue that can be found exactly on paper.

Spoiler: it's not the Magic's defense. Orlando has boasted world-beating defense on its opponents, clamping teams down with 6.3 blocks and 7.8 steals a game, good for a top-7 defensive rating.

Even in losing efforts, they are still a top-10 defensive team. But they are also scoring a greater portion of their points off turnovers in their games, and far less beyond the arc — their FG% drops 7.3% on triples and 3.5% overall.

You have hopefully figured out by now that the Magic's offense has been horrendous. Their numbers are bad, and that includes the inflation from beating teams with the 27th-, 28th-, and 29th-ranked defenses. Before playing the Wizards (No. 29 there), they were dead last in the NBA in 3-point FG% at 29% (you read that right). Vucevic, who averages 3.2 wide-open 3s per game (defined as the closest defender at 6-feet or further away), is shooting less than 30% on them. The percentages amongst the rest of the team are nearly as bad.

That's what it ultimately boils down to for the Magic. They display a stalwart defense, and they don't turn the ball over — they are second in the league at just 12.9 turnovers per game. They just can't shoot.

The first failure of their shooting woes is an analytical failure. They are top-5 in the league for shooting the most mid-range shots and they don't have the knockdown shooters to justify it. Ross can only drive and pop it from 16 feet so effectively.

The second failure is simply a lack of talent. The Magic are the worst ISO team in the league, shooting just 2.7 ATTEMPTS in isolation per game. Even the Cavaliers run 7.8 ISO plays a game. And Orlando is bottom five in the league in points created in transition. When Orlando is in the half-court, they are relying almost entirely upon set plays with less-than-stellar shooters.

With a brick wall defense, it would be a bad idea to count out the Magic. After all, offenses can come and go in spurts, but defenses will anchor a team throughout the season.

We have seen the results when the Magic find that shooting rhythm. Only Orlando can determine if that will continue. But to be a serious noisemaker in the playoffs, calibrating its offense is more of a demand than a suggestion.