The Wizards are Only Half Bad

Washington is 2 games from having the worst record in the league, but they may not be a total mess.

If you had asked me before the season started if I would watch Washington Wizards basketball, I would have, rightfully, laughed in your face.

On paper the Wizards' roster consisted of Bradley Beal and a bunch of contest winners whose reward was getting to play in the NBA. Now, Washington is 6-11, a playoff long-shot, and to the naked eye I appear to be an all-knowing basketball force.

Dig a little deeper, and I, and pretty much every basketball commentator on the planet, look like basketball charlatans.

The Wizards trail only James Harden's Rockets and Giannis Antetokounmpo's Bucks for the most potent offense in the NBA. They are doing it by playing fast and (relatively) smart. They trail only the aforementioned teams in pace and they have the lowest assist-turnover ratio, jumping 10 spots from last season.

I say relatively smart because while the league is adapting to the three- and free throw-only style, the Wizards' shot chart isn't the most analytically friendly. Washington has the fewest proportion of its points from the free throw line, and they rank just 15th in points from 3-pointers. They are top-5 for points in the mid-range thanks to players like offensive-minded rookie Rui Hachimura hitting them at a high clip.

The Wizards are just that eager to hoist shots — a league-high 94.3 per game to be exact. You may inclined to believe that they are forcing turnovers and getting fast break opportunities, but that would be wrong. Only 10% of their points — 24th in the NBA — come in transition. And they are bottom 10 in steals.

The hypothesis to their offense takes some mental navigation. First, they pass the ball more than most NBA teams, so they get open shots. The Wizards shoot early in the clock. Washington just has a lot of dudes that can score — six average double-figures, including Bradley Beals 28.3 points per game.

When Davis Bertans can have games where he nails five or more treys, or when Moe Wagner collects 30 points in less than 22 minutes, or Isaiah Thomas returns from injury and to his old shooting form, and on and on, a lively offense is born.

There is one more pillar to this theory: defense. The sole reason the Wizards are basement dwellers. That lowly status will occur naturally by having a league-worst — and historically low — 114.8 defensive rating. I mean, Washington lost to the Rockets despite scoring 158 points. 158! In regulation. That's all kinds of good and bad record book material.

When teams can score with relative ease on the Wizards, it gives rise to more opportunities for them to score on the other end. There also may be a little bit of luck, too, from other teams matching their pace.

Yes, the Wizards lose games and they will lose many more this year. The offense is much more likely to regress than the defense improving.

But for now, I won't mind putting the Washington Wizards game on my TV.