The NBA's Zion Gamble

The NBA has exploded in growth. That expansion was with a league that has always had Michael Jordan or LeBron James.

I read a piece by Ethan Strauss for The Athletic that enlightened me on the NBA's domestic viewership problem. He writes:

It might sound like sacrilege, but it’s more than likely that the NBA is losing domestic popularity now and in the near term, despite its ever-sold narrative of a perpetual ascendance. Yes, the NBA is young, steeped in the social media zeitgeist and theoretically primed to take over when those other dusty sports die out. No, this dynamic isn’t yet resulting in demonstrable viewership growth in America.

The league's illusory growth has been chronicled through the narrativized career arc of LeBron James. He saved basketball from Michael Jordan's retirement, and became heroic, and villainous, and charitable, and bigger than basketball. Ratings dropped 14 percent due to a LeBron-less playoffs. This isn't to say that there are back-end issues, like cord-cutters, plaguing domestic NBA viewership. Rather, part of what keeps it afloat is slowly fading, and another life raft is needed.

James is still among the league's best. Some still see his greatness. Some assume a presupposed narrative that he's entering the twilight of his career. This premise elevated the myth of Zion Williamson. The man of improbable stature reaching otherworldly heights. He's the next man to save the NBA.

Zion is already featured in an NBA 2K20 commercial. He is also in the league's hallmark pre-season promo, a montage to the tune of Charles Bradley's "Changes". The Pelicans were given 30 nationally televised games. It is not for JJ Redick.

The NBA is all in on the Zion hype, even if it means televising a small market in New Orleans (though it is one of the most engaged markets in the league). The league is gambling that Zion Williamson can be a suitable figurehead. It's not a win-or-lose scenario for a nice hood ornament, it is absolutely necessary that it pays off. And now, with the news that Zion will be sidelined for the first 6-to-8 weeks of his rookie season, the gamble gets even bigger as onlookers believe it portends a bigger issue.

What Williamson brings that others besides LeBron can't is a brand of basketball that's revelatory and dominant. Steph Curry is the closest to also fitting this description. Legendary Heat executive Pat Riley preached to "keep the main thing the main thing." Zion's play style is an attraction to be admired. It gets actual eyeballs on the screen, not eager fingers to Twitter.

I quip that a good gauge of someone's relevance or importance is if both of your parents and/or one of your grandparents recognizes said person. If Zion doesn't meet that threshold (which may be a different litmus test for you), then his early marketing is an ostensible failure for the NBA. Even if he is a successful player on the court.

The first thought that popped into my head after finishing Strauss' piece was that Zion's responsibility to the league is to contribute to its viewership. That itself is a problem — the NBA can only brand itself on its stars. Even then, it can't control how they perform on the court. The excitement of the on-court product only has so much sway in actual TV/stream engagement, but it can certainly harm the NBA more readily. It is not a task that the 19-year-old asked for. Nor is it within his control to set the guidelines for success.

But every aspect of his game and how he conducts himself suggests that it's not the riskiest gamble around. Just watching him play for a few minutes can reveal his basketball brilliance; the hype can almost be justified to the result. He is built like a bulldog and leaps over buildings. At Duke, when he busted through his shoe against North Carolina, leading to a knee injury, the legend of the Hulk-like strength of Zion Williamson grew. He is tremendous with on-ball defense, he is a high-level passer, and, of course, he can get to the rim at ease.

His clean record off the court further elevates the prominence of his game. If the past few years of his life are any indication, he will shown no signs of buckling to pressure of becoming a phenom. He hasn't shown anything to doubt that so far.

The pitfalls of Zion failing would emerge subtly. The league's biggest stars are in or approaching their 30s. Rising stars like Donovan Mitchell, Kyle Kuzma, D'Angelo Russell, De'Aaron Fox, and even the MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo, don't command as widespread recognition as expected. An ever-changing NBA landscape may actually be more of a chaotic evil than a chaotic good, especially considering the engagement required to keep up. Who becomes the face of the league when LeBron is no longer playing at an elite level? How would it affect a fanbase insatiable for on-court success?

For now, LeBron is still a mainstay. It might be that way until Bronny James makes the NBA. But Zion joining the Pelicans now, for better or worse, is perfect timing for him to grow and start leaving his mark.

Either the league evolves, or let's hope their bet pays off.