Lakers-Heat Finals Preview: What I'm Paying Attention to

Ahead of an exciting Finals matchup, I have questions for how this series will go.

Finally, we made it. And it feels so good.

The fifth-seeded Miami Heat put away the Boston Celtics in Game 6 to punch its ticket to the NBA Finals for the fifth time in the past ten seasons, where they will face off against the presumed favorite Los Angeles Lakers.

After copious amounts of preseason chatter about just how wide open the NBA is this season — 10, maybe more, suitors for the Larry O’Brien trophy — we get a Lakers-Heat matchup. These two teams have combined to claim eight championships since 2000.

But the story is far different from their pasts, different from recent dynasties returning for their throne. Frank Vogel has faced Erik Spoelstra and LeBron James in the Eastern Conference Finals before, now LeBron is on his side. Miami is equipped with depth and swagger to compete against anyone.

The Heat’s run to the Finals was improbable, dispatching the No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks, No. 3 Celtics, and No. 4 Pacers with ease despite a roster filled out with the undrafted and unexpected.

No. 1 Los Angeles, conversely, had planned to be here. But the relative ease with which it put away high-octane offenses in the Trailblazers, Rockets, and Nuggets suggests they’re out for blood. That noise you hear? It’s the Los Angeles Clippers leaving the bubble with a whimper.

A 1-seed against a 5-seed would portend a series with a swift conclusion, especially when that 1-seed is led by LeBron James. But Miami has proven that such an illation would be premature.

Here’s what I am keeping an eye on for what should be another fun series:

What will Miami do about Anthony Davis?

This is really the question that brings about other relevant questions. At first, the answer seems obvious, match Davis up against Bam Adebayo. If Los Angeles starts big with Dwight Howard at the '5', Miami might be forced to put Adebayo on him and Jae Crowder on Davis. Using Crowder would require throwing double teams, as Davis simply has more size and enough handles to dominate anyone else. Miami can’t put Adebayo on LeBron, or else Davis or Howard really have carte blanche with its defense.

Running a zone defense is certainly in the cards, but how practiced is Miami to run it effectively in the Finals for an extended amount of time? In an ideal world, the Heat force the Lakers to beat them on the perimeter, in which Miami has the upper hand. But a zone simply limits the average space between defenders, and is susceptible to rolling big men like Davis. It’s easy to envision LeBron barreling down the lane and kicking it out to Kyle Kuzma for the weak side corner 3, or to lob it up to a cutting Davis.

So we wind up with Adebayo on Davis, which makes the most sense from a size and perimeter flexibility perspective. But Davis still has the edge on defense and can switch effectively on DHOs and can guard the rim. Offensively, Davis brings Adebayo out of the paint and any switch is a recipe for disaster. It’s a little different when the switched defender gets Anthony Davis instead of Daniel Theis. I believe we will initially see Crowder-led double teams at first, but Adebayo could slide in to guard Davis if Miami stays small and Howard gets in foul trouble.

How Miami chooses to attack Davis establishes the tenor for the rest of their series. Their defense changes. Any sort of inside-out game changes. Adebayo isn’t getting a bajillion dunks like in last game’s fourth quarter because of Davis’s presence.

And the Heat have to worry about LeBron too?

How important will depth be?

The advantage that Miami has over Los Angeles is that they have five guys who could go off any given game, and they get it done at different levels. Jimmy Butler can bullrush to the lane or pull up for a sweet J. Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson can cook behind the arc. Goran Dragic has caught fire multiple times these playoffs. And Adebayo can go coast-to-coast.

The Lakers, on the other hand, have LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and a bunch of dish towels. That’s the crux of this matchup: the power of stars vs. the power in numbers. Needing four wins in what could be LeBron’s best chance to get his fourth title, I’m inclined to believe that the superstars will be unleashed without significant minutes management. I do, however, have a proclivity to be wrong.

Frank Vogel (and everyone else) likes LeBron and Davis on the court together, but tries to stagger them when rest is necessary. Forcing one of them into foul trouble could spell monumental trouble for the Lakers. This possible issue is why I believe LeBron will guard guys like Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala, and will only take on Butler if necessary. That is not to say that Los Angeles’s other pieces are liabilities; the Lakers have played as a compatible unit in their own way. But their extended playing time is ultimately an advantage in Miami’s favor, who can play nine deep.

The only question is, then, is if it will even matter.

Who has the most on the line for their legacy?

This question has little to do with the actual game, but I think the previous questions address exactly how each team will address their offensive and defensive schemes.

For the Heat, there isn’t exactly much on the line as a franchise. They will be underdogs and their run to the Finals was unlikely as is. They still have recent championships to hang their hat on. Erik Spoelstra and Pat Riley are already being praised for their savvy roster construction and admirable team chemistry. Poor performances wouldn’t impact the career trajectories of guys like Herro or Robinson or even Adebayo.

Jimmy Butler may be the only Heat player with anything to prove to strengthen their legacy. He’s been considered a star for a while, but not one that can carry a team to a ring. He is a pariah in each of the cities he previously played in. He has been casted as a bad teammate, leader, and diva, despite exemplifying the opposite in his time with the Heat. Butler may not have much at stake if the Heat lose, but he can reach a new tier of the game’s greats if they pull it off.

Los Angeles has everything to lose. They are the favorite, representing a city that expects championships. They invested almost their entire young core to bring in Anthony Davis in hopes of making it to this point. Fans and pundits will make claims about whether Davis is a championship player or not if they lose.

LeBron has been in pursuit of his fourth title for four years, an achievement that would further solidify his resume against Michael Jordan as the greatest player of all time. A loss to have a disappointing 3-7 Finals record would overshadow his astonishing 10 championship appearances. It’s as simple as that.

Prediction: Lakers in 5