Andre Drummond is Playing Out of His Mind

His recent performances make next season's contract negotiations harder to ignore.

I have watched a lot of Andre Drummond since he entered the league in 2012.

He's been a stat-stuffer since his first year, cashing in boards as easily as field goals. Drummond seemed to be the one player that posted gaudy numbers, but everyone knew his actual impact was not proportional.

The 6-foot-10 Drummond has spent his entire NBA career prancing sporadically around the court like Bambi. A man of gargantuan structure who struggled to toughen up around the rim, opting to float in aimless hook shots away from the rim.

But to start the 2019-20 season, Drummond seems different. The short-handed Detroit Pistons are only 3-4, but it could be much worse if it weren't for Drummond's dominance. Through seven games, he is averaging 22.1 points, 18.7(!) boards, with a 61.0% eFG. Those ridiculous numbers are secondary to the newfound leadership he has shown. Without Blake Griffin, Derrick Rose, Reggie Jackson, Tim Frazier, and Sekou Doumbouya, Drummond led the Pistons to a 113-109 win over the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday, including hitting 3/4 late game free throws to ice it.

For the first time, Drummond's numbers seem impactful and necessary. He looks smarter and more fluid on the court, like he knows he is playing for a new contract. Owner Tom Gores has expressed keeping Drummond as a to priority. Whether that was a reality was always a question, but now it seems unavoidable.

He is only 26 years old, playing at least 78 games every year besides as a rookie, and putting up these stats. Eighth all-time in total rebounds per game, leading the league 3 seasons of his career (but in total rebounds for 4 years). He has led the league in offensive rebounds per game for 6 seasons. Digging deeper, he has led the league in offensive rebound rate for 4 seasons — the ultimate cleaner-upper and possession-saver. He might be one of the greatest rebounders in NBA history.

His shortcomings arise from his inability to stretch the floor. In the modern NBA that's a sizable blemish. But defensively he has proven he can follow big men around the perimeter. Before the season began, he had DPOY aspirations, and while he remains a longshot, he is not far off, averaging 1.7 steals and 2.6 blocks per game.

Drummond has certainly played like an All-Star. The question remains what that will translate to financially if he continues on this trajectory. With Griffin coming back soon, his production will certainly be harmed, but he can still post eye-popping numbers and continue to grow as an on-court leader.

Drummond has a $28.8m player option for next year, and he has already shown an intention to opt out and test free agency (though he claims it is nothing against the Pistons organization). Nikola Vucevic, perhaps the most reasonable recent contract comparison for Drummond, was an All-Star last year and signed a 4-year/$100m deal, less than what Drummond would make in 2020-21.

Projected drops in basketball-related income, as well as the small market for big men who strictly operate in the paint, could complicate contract talks, despite how productive Drummond has been.

But from what we have seen through 7 games, a Vucevic-like contract doesn't seem unfair. And given Detroit's inability to lure big-name free agents, it may be a worthwhile risk to tie down Drummond in his prime.